That was by far his worst run for quite some time and I’m not willing to take favourite odds to find out if he can bounce back.
Jungle Edge should lead the field and stretch them out a bit, and that should see horses drawn wide get every chance to slot in with cover – and this is where my winner comes from.
The Michael Moroney-trained Tivaci was caught three deep without cover in the TJ Smith Stakes, and he stuck to his task well in the straight to finish 3.3 lengths 4th.
Voodoo Lad enjoyed a much easier run on the fence yet Tivaci motored past him in the straight after doing a stack of work.
Both are at similar stages of their campaign, and for that reason, I have to promote Tivaci ahead of Voodoo Lad as they step up to 1400m.
Tivaci took many lengths off English in the straight after she enjoyed a soft run, so he also goes ahead of her based on that run.
Jumping from barrier 7 with Damien Oliver aboard also comes with a historical advantage.
In the past 24 years, nine horses have won from barrier 7, while five of those wins have come within the last nine years.
‘Lucky’ barrier 7 keeps producing winners in this event and I think it will be another on Saturday.
Of the others, I’m not willing to completely dismiss Divine Prophet.
Three-year-olds have a good record in the All Aged Stakes – three of the past five winners have been in that age bracket.
His two runs in Melbourne have been full of merit, and he did win the Up And Coming Stakes (1300m) at Randwick when charging home from last.
Redkirk Warrior was disappointing last start, Japonisme has been very inconsistent and may just be looking for 1400m, McCreery may struggle with the big weight – although he does have blinkers going on, and Famous Seamus would need to wind the clock back a fair way to be in the finish.
A drying track will help Tivaci’s chances and at $8.50, he looks like the way to play this race.
For the Trifecta:
1st – Tivaci, English
2nd – Tivaci, English, Divine Prophet
3rd – Le Romain, Voodoo Lad, McCreery, Tivaci, English, Divine Prophet
Cost = $16