We take a look at this week's Tote Gold Trophy.(credit:
Paolo Camera)
As befits the richest two mile handicap hurdle in the calendar, the Tote Gold Trophy – still the Schweppes to a certain generation! – has produced several top class renewals in recent years.
Apart from the likes of Persian War and Make A Stand, who won the Newbury race before going onto Champion Hurdle success a month later, the race has also produced two Champion Hurdle winners this century – Rooster Booster and Punjabi, both of who only managed second spot in the Tote Gold Trophy.
The roll of honour in recent seasons points trend fiends in three directions – look at the Irish entry (two winners from the Emerald Isle since 2003) – consider the Gary Moore contenders (won last two runnings) and pay full respect to the Nicky Henderson runners (four wins since 1998).
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Here follows a quick guide to the 28 entries at Newbury.
Blue Bajan – has been mixing it in top company, but winless since May 2008. Stable in good form and ran well in recent flat spin at Wolverhampton. Faces stiff task off top weight.
Mutual Friend – one of thee David Pipe entries. Down the field at Ascot last time off a mark of 144, having previously won at Cheltenham off 135. Looks too high in the handicap to have a serious chance.
Mamlook – classy flat horse, rated 96 and placed in the Cesarewitch. Ran a great race against Celestial Halo at Wincanton in November before successfully stepping up in trip at Ascot last month. Strong pace would suit this stayer, who looks fairly treated here with a 5lbs penalty for last win.
Songe – has been mixing novice chasing with hurdling this season, but without success. Last run came behind Khyber Kim in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham in December when beaten 35 lengths. Hard to see him troubling the judge at Newbury.
Takeroc – springer in the market last weekend when the trainer revlealed his plan to run his grey here. Just one win on his UK record (novice chase at Sandown in 2008), but decent run at Cheltenham on only run this season when 5th on Trials Day. Market looks to have over-reacted to the Nicholls/Walsh factor and no value at current odds.
Ronaldo Des Mottes – looks the Nicholshayne number one on the back of his win at Kempton over Christmas. An 11lbs rise in the handicap doesn’t look too harsh for this progressive sort who has won half his careeer starts. A serious contender.
Spirit River – the current favourite for this valuable prize. Nicky Henderson has a great record in this race and this lightly raced sort (just four runs) looks set to go close on Saturday. Following an eye-catching reappearance at Newbury, Spirit River easily defied top weight and a mark of 128 at Cheltenham. He can definitely be competitive off his revised rating.
First Point – another Seven Barrows entry and could revert to the smaller obstacles after running over fences on his last three starts. Most recent hurdles win came over 2m 3f at Newton Abbot in the summer off a mark of 133, so a current perch of 141 looks a little high. Definitely an outsider.
Simarian – seems to have lost his way on the evidence of his recent runs, and was particularly disappointing on his most recent run at Cheltenham when beaten nearly 60 lengths. His hurdling has not been that fluent this season and it would take a leap of faith to see him troubling the judge on Saturday.
Ring The Boss – has been running over longer trips this season, without any joy and it is hard to envisage this nine-year-old finding the pace to trouble the principals in this two miler.
Stravinksy Dance – much hyped mare who came from France with a big reputation, but disappointed with a tame effort on her UK debut at Ascot last month. Not certain to run at Newbury as the jockey (son of the owner) is committed to riding at Warwick.
Any Given Day – good form in novice events gives this five-year-old a definite chance. Ran really well in a Grade One at Newbury (form looks solid) in December, when not staying the trip and earlier form against the highly rated Pepe Simo at Haydock reads well. Yard in tremendous form, and off 10-9 has a serious each-way chance.
Harry Tricker – from the Gary Moore stable that have done so well in recent seasons in this race and few handicappers in training are more consistent than this six-year-old. Given his form at Cheltenham in the Greatwood it is hard to see Harry Tricker not being in the first four at Newbury.
Frontier Dancer – not the most consistent performer in the race and on the basis of his last effort at Ascot would have little chance here, but on his earlier run behind Fairyland over this course and distance he would have a squeak. Seems the sort who would be suited by a longer trip.
Culcabock – sprang a major shock at Aintree last April when winning a handicap hurdle at 66/1. Two runs since seem to show that the 10 year old is not well treated now on 136 and he will be the rank outsider on Saturday.
Manyriverstocross – progressive and classy novice hailing from a yard that are now back in top form. Can be forgiven his last effort at Newbury as the stable were really struggling. Very useful on the flat (rated 98), but looks the sort who might be best at trips over two miles.
Get Me Out Of Here – one of the main beneficiaries of the recent rise in the weights, this unbeaten contender commands immense respect. He stepped out of novice company over this course and distance at the Hennessy meeting to readily dispose of a decent field (Spirit River only 5th that day) and even off a mark of 135 (12lbs up from last win), this six-year-old is set to take a hand on Saturday.
European Dream – part owned by Hull boss Phil Brown, this raider from the North has not visited the winners’ enclosure for a year. Still 10lbs higher in the handicap than when successful at Musselburgh, European Dream will struggle to make the frame in a race of this class.
Fairyland – another of the Henderson entries and this seven-year-old mare could be one that flies under the radar. She is a most likeable and consistent sort with a course and distance win on her CV. Only out of the first three twice in 11 career starts, Fairyland could hit the frame at decent odds.
Fushe Jo – a lightly raced sort from Howard Johnson’s Cumbrian yard, this six-year-old has not been seen out since winning at Wetherby in mid-November. Overall, his form is solid rather than spectacular and off a mark of 133 it is hard to say he is well handicapped.
Keki Beau – looked a non-stayer on his most recent start in the Lanzarote at Kempton, but his previous form is perfectly respectable and there will be plenty of outsiders will less of a chance on Saturday.
Numide – winner of the 2008 Greatwood at Cheltenham, this mud-loving ex-French flat racer is a lively outsider with a chance on Saturday. Failed to cut the mustard as a novice chaser, Numide was never put in the race behind Ronaldo Des Mottes at Kempton over Christmas on his return to hurdling. Keep an eye on the market this week and this could become a late gamble.
Pascha Bere – the fact that this seven-year-old has won just once in a dozen starts, and that was in a novice event at Folkestone two years ago, will ensure that this grey gelding goes off as a rank outsider.
Arch Rebel – mixed form for Noel Meade in Ireland recently. A great effort at Fairyhouse in November was followed by a tame run in the competitive MCR at Leopardstown last month. The stable seem to be in a lull at present and this nine-year-old will be an outsider on Saturday.
Oldrik – well held on the basis of his most recent run at Cheltenham, but has a chance on his earlier form at Ascot behind Zabeel Palace. Is consistent, but as a result keeps creeping up the handicap and is currently 16lbs above his last winning mark.
Chaninbar – a front runner who could well tow this field along at a decent pace until the third last, but hard to see him being involved in the finish.
First Avenue – another consistent and likeble entry from the Gary Moore yard. Has a great chance on this basis of his run behind Ronaldo Des Mottes at Kempton, but would ideally need Blue Bajan not to run as he currently sits 6lbs out of the handicap. Only one win from eight starts also suggests his current mark is not exactly lenient.
Siberian Tiger – normally any runners from the shrewd Tony Martin yard command respect, but this five-year-old is out of the handicap and has other entries this week.