Is Denman good enough to win the Hennessy Gold Cup under 11st 12lb again?(credit:
CharlesFred)
One of the Racingbase team takes a look at the career of 'The Tank' and considers his chances in this weekend's Hennessy Gold Cup.
Denman is undoubtedly one of the best chasers in the UK; but we're very proud of him over in Ireland too as he was bred just outside Fermoy, County Cork by the O'Flynn family. Indeed the mother of that household has become known as Mrs Denman in the town and the local celebratory fires burned long into the night following the 2008 Gold Cup at Cheltenham.
If punters think that Denman is capable of winning the 2010 Cheltenham Gold Cup, then they should follow this link to the market now where they can also get a free bet on the race with Betfair.
Watching re-runs of that race gives me mixed emotions because I switched my allegiance on raceday and backed Kauto Star at the last minute. I'd followed Denman's career all along after a friend rang me from a Liscarroll point-to-point (his first ever race) and told me the horse was definitely one to watch. I won't pretend that I know a huge amount about pointing, but apparently he won by more than a dozen lengths and immediately marked himself down as a very serious animal - a class apart.
With the benefit of hindsight, I should have stuck with him at Cheltenham 2008 but I guess I got caught up a little in the Kauto-mania and started to doubt my own judgement somewhat. For a number of reasons, I jumped ship but immediately regretted it and I knew my fate before we hit halfway through the race. A costly experience but still, it was an incredible Gold Cup to watch and we were very lucky to have both horses around to renew rivalries once again in 2009, this time with Kauto coming out on top. All going well, we can have the final decider in March 2010.
But getting back to that Liscarroll win, he soon caught the eye of Paul Barber and was sent from Adrian Maguire's place over to Paul Nicholls at Ditcheat. The son of Presenting has now raced 17 times under rules, winning no less than 13 - which equates to a 76 per cent strike-rate. Had you put £1 on each time, you'd show a very respectable profit of £12.
He spent the 05/06 season hurdling, most notably winning the Challow Novices' Hurdle (held at Cheltenham that year) but victory in the Royal And Sun Alliance at the 2007 Festival sent him on his journey that would see him considered one of the best chasers this decade.
The 2007/2008 season was his best ever, winning the Hennessey, Lexus and Gold Cup along the way and there are those who will argue that this may have been the peak. Following the Gold Cup, it was rumoured that he was carrying an injury at home but a few months later, Nicholls revealed that gelding was suffering from an irregular heartbeat and he promptly sent him off for a successful operation.
He made his reappearance at Kempton back in February of this year but was easily beaten by Madison Du Berlais - despite going off at 1.8 on Betfair. His 2009 Gold Cup performance in March was a credit to Nicholls and he ran with some spirit - but in fairness, he didn't give Kauto Star's backers too much to worry about and never traded below 5.0 in-running.
Denman was fairly well supported in April for the Totesport Bowl Chase at Aintree and was starting to respond to Sam Thomas' niggling and pushing when he clipped the top of the second last and came crashing down. Whether or not he would have won is arguable but he suffered a cut in the process and we haven't seen him out since.
So how will he perform this weekend? It would appear that his injury worries are behind him but it's hard not to have reservations considering his latest three races. He won back in 2007 with a stunning weight-carrying performance and the debate has started as to whether this weekend's burden can hold him back if running to form. On Monday, Paul Nicholls seemed fairly upbeat when telling the press:
"We have Denman nice and well. He has done it before. The fact that he won the Gold Cup that season means he was well handicapped off 161. You could argue he is now not that well handicapped. He has got to carry nearly a stone more in effect, but if he runs like he did in last year's Gold Cup he has got a big chance."
Barbers Shop and What A Friend are amongst many that can put up a big challenge so for me, it's a no bet race although I'll definitely be cheering on 'The Tank' as I'd love to see him return to his old form. Indeed, with Kauto Star back to winning ways we could be in for a cracking season once again. In case you think you are losing the plot, be aware that his two owners (Barber and Findlay) alternate their silks each season so I presume his colours will be different once again this year!
He currently trades at 5.0 which seems fair enough all-considered but I'm happy to take a watching brief for now and take in this race without a having a bet. I hate to sit on the fence but I just don't feel ready to part with money until we've seen him race competitively once again. No doubt this weekend's race will have an effect on the Cheltenham Gold Cup 2010 markets so keep an eye on those if you already have a position open.
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Denman currently trades at 6.8 for the 2010 Cheltenham Gold Cup and is best priced at 25.0 for the 2010 Aintree Grand National.