This weekend sees attention turn to Lingfield for the Group Three Winter Derby.
Nideeb is the favourite at 3.5 and it's not difficult to see why, as his record on polytrack reads two wins and a short-head second from just three starts, showing the same level of smart form on each occasion. That sort of form is well up to what is required to challenge for the places at least in an average Winter Derby and Nideeb looks an obvious contender to go close, but whether 3.5 represents an attractive price is another question entirely. He certainly looks highly likely to run his race, having the fewest questions marks over him of all the obvious contenders, but equally his form claims are solid rather than outstanding, and it's probably worth finding something to take him on with.
Probably the best option in that respect is the mare Pachattack, who should almost certainly be tighter to Nideeb in the betting than the 6.4 currently available about her suggests.
Pachattack won listed races at Newcastle and Newbury in 2010 and rounded off the season in North America where she was a good fifth in the Grade 1 E. P. Taylor Stakes at Woodbine prior to winning a non-graded stakes on the polytrack there on her most recent start in November. Taking into account her sex allowance, Pachattack comes out 2 lb ahead of Nideeb on Timeform ratings for the Winter Derby, and looks too big a price in relation to that one. Neither track nor surface are concerns, while tactics are unlikely to pose a problem given that Pachattack is best ridden forward - no bad thing in a race that has, over the years, often been a somewhat muddling affair. No filly or mare has ever won the Winter Derby, but Gerard Butler was arguably unlucky not to do so with Silver Pivotal in 2008 and looks to have a good chance of rectifying that three years on.
The single best piece of recent form any of the Winter Derby entries have to offer is Dansili Dancer's dead-heat with subsequent Hong Kong Vase winner Mastery in a mile-and-a-half listed race at Kempton back in November. Eight-years-old may be a bit late in life for a Flat horse to find his niche, but that appeared to be the case for Dansili Dancer, who though admittedly a very useful horse on turf throughout his career, produced career-best efforts on his two outings on polytrack in 2010, firstly when winning the Roseberry Handicap at Kempton and latterly in the aforementioned listed event. The form of either of those wins is up to normal Winter Derby-winning standard so strictly on that score he is too big a price for the race at 8.2, though ten furlongs around a very sharp track like Lingfield almost certainly won't play to Dansili Dancer's strengths.
The one with the next best form is the lightly-raced six-year-old Shamali, who represents William Haggas. Shamali has clearly has more than his share of physical problems, as evidenced by the fact he has only had nine careers starts, but when he has made it to the track he has invariably shown plenty of ability, winning three times, the most recent of which came at Ascot in summer 2009. He only ran twice in 2010 and wasn't seen after May (late non-runner at Royal Ascot, when reportedly lame). If he retains his ability then he is capable of going close in the Winter Derby, particularly as his strong-travelling style looks ideal for polytrack (ready winner of his only race on the surface) but his apparent fragility, coupled with the fact that he has always seemed to come on for his reappearance in the past, tempers enthusiasm somewhat.
Another one worth mentioning is Nice Style, who is similar to Shamali in that he is a six-year-old who hasn't stood much racing in recent seasons. He won four on the bounce in 2008 when trained in Ireland by Ger Lyons, but was unraced on the Flat in 2009 (had one jumps outing for David Pipe that year) and only returned to the level in November 2010, having joined Jeremy Gask in the meantime. He has since proven himself as good as ever, picking up well to win a handicap over the Winter Derby course and distance in January. That was a somewhat muddling affair, and the form does leave him a bit short of this level.
