The stats suggest you want to be drawn high in Saturday's Stewards' Cup with 10 of the 17 winners exiting from stall 19 or higher, with only three berthed in single figures.
However, a middle to low draw is far from insurmountable with three of the 17 berthed in single figures, while the last three winners were drawn 10, 14 and 11. Friday's consolation race will provide all-important clues but at this stage I'm not going to be put off my ante post fancy, JOHANNES, who is drawn in stall three. I've already had a few quid on at 25/1 and will be going in again at 16/1 with bet365, who are paying out on five places.
I marked him down for a big sprint handicap after he won at York in May, where he was really impressive. He's had a couple of races since and ran OK in the Wokingham last time from a bad draw, but I suspect this race has been his target all season long and we know he acts on the track as he won the consolation race 12 months ago. He's 17lb higher now but needed to be to get into the race and I'm sure he's running better than ever at the age of seven. The booking of talented conditional Martin Lane, who takes a useful 3lb off his back, is the icing on the cake for me.
In a race of this nature, though, it makes sense to have at least a couple running for you and the other one I like is RILEYSKEEPINGFAITH (16/1 Blue Square, also five places), who like Johannes ran in the Wokingham. I quietly fancied him that day and thought he ran a blinder to finish eleventh (of 27) considering he was drawn right against the unfavoured far rail. Watch the video and you will see that he was flying at the finish and would surely have been placed at least if he had been drawn low.
He didn't far much better with the draw on his next start at Windsor (7th of 16) but bounced right back to form last time out when making Genki, last year's Stewards' Cup winner and 7/1 favourite this time, pull out all the stops for a neck success at Haydock. The form of that race has since been boosted by the subsequent win of the third Castles In The Air (held), while he meets Genki on 5lb better terms here. Given luck in running, he must go close.
Of the rest, the one I'm most worried about is Palace Moon (9/1 Coral), who is due to go up 5lb in future for finishing second in the Bunbury Cup last time, which came after the weights for this race were framed. He also finished third in the Wokingham so clearly loves the hustle and bustle of big fields and connections are leaving nothing to chance by booking Kieren Fallon, but I'll stick to my pair of fancies.
Recommended Bets:
Johannes 1pt each-way @ 16/1 bet365 (1/4 odds, 1.2.3.4.5)
Rileyskeepingfaith 1pt each-way @ 16/1 Blue Square (1/4 odds, 1.2.3.4.5)