Bookmakers are going 8/1 'the field' for Saturday's Northumberland Plate at Newcastle, meaning we are guaranteed a good price for finding the winner.
That's easier said than done as potential winners abound in this 22-runner handicap, but we can narrow this down using the stats and one of the strongest is concerning weight. Bangalore in 2002 is the only winner to carry more than 9st in the Plate since 1996, and his victory came in a year when the top weight was rated just 104 - the 108-rated Friston Forest (16/1 Coral) carries that burden this year. Every other winner in the last 10 years carried 8st 11lb or less, with nine winners rated between 85 and 99.
If we apply that rule this year, we can take out the fancied Judgethemoment (10/1 Stan James), Ajaan (10/1 bet365) and Hits Only Vic (16/1 Coral), although it would be dangerous to rule out the first-named on weight alone as he has won his last three races over 2m or more, including the Ascot Stakes last time out. The 5lb penalty for winning that race might not be enough to stop him, but more of a concern is his draw in stall 21. Bizarrely for a race over this distance, stall positions have proved crucial as the field takes a sharp turn soon after the start and the Plate can be lost at that point. Eight of the past 10 winners came out of single-figure stalls.
Connections of Keenes Day (8/1 Blue Square) would have been delighted with stall seven, and he must go close after travelling like the best horse in the race in the Ascot Stakes last time until a combination of a wide draw throughout and an inability to see out the 2m4f trip did for him. The drop back to 2m here is in his favour and he looks sure to get the sound surface he needs - but can he reproduce his best form just 11 days later?
I'd rather back a fresh horse and HENDERSYDE has had a nice break since winning at Newmarket back in May, his third win in four starts. That was over 1m6f but he was doing all his best work at the finish and, providing he settles - the 'quiet' riding style of his jockey Shane Kelly should help in that respect - he should be able to travel strongly throughout the race. Rated 90, he certainly doesn't look overburdened with weight and stall five is perfect, so he has plenty going for him, not least his price of 9/1 (William Hill).
With those sort of odds available I can justify backing two in the race, and the other one that takes my eye is WELLS LYRICAL in stall 2. Like Hendersyde, he's potentially well-treated off a mark of 91 and is a fresh horse having been off since finishing second on his seasonal debut in April. He returned with a splint that day, but his trainer Brian Smart has issued a positive bulletin about his fitness and his ability to stay the trip is beyond question after staying-on over 2m last time. What's more, he's a tasty 10/1 with Ladbrokes.
Recommended Bets:
Hendersyde 1pt @ 9/1 William Hill
Wells Lyrical 1pt @ 10/1 Ladbrokes