Saturday's MCR (formerly Pierse) Hurdle at Leopardstown (3.05) is traditionally one of the biggest betting races of the Irish winter and one for which horses are targeted at for some time.
That's certainly the case with the Charles Byrnes-trained Carthalawn, who finished third in the 2009 renewal, which you may remember was marred by controversy after the late implementation of an alternative handicap, with the resultant weights rise paving the way for a shock success for 50/1 shot Penny's Bill. Since then, Carthalawn has been mainly plying his trade over fences with his only outing over hurdles this season coming at Tipperary in October, when chasing home leading Champion Hurdle fancy Go Native.
Clearly, that form gives him a big chance and he's every right to be favourite - 9/1 clear best with Stan James, 10/1 with Victor Chandler. However, he does fall down on a key trend, namely his recent form - which reads '45', albeit in smart company - with nine of the last 10 winners finishing first or second in one their two previous two runs. After 42 career starts, he's also more exposed than the typical winner so I would advise against backing him.
With a dozen other horses currently priced at 16/1 or less, I could go on for ages discussing each of their chances but I will save your time (and mine) by cutting straight to my tip, STEVIEMAC, who can be backed at 12/1 with bet365 (10/1 elsewhere). The selection is progressing a rate of knots and completed a hat-trick at Fairyhouse last time, when disposing of 16 rivals in good style. This represents a step up in class but the style of his latest victory suggests he's still improving and, while his handicap mark has gone up as a result of those wins, his rating of 116 ensures he gets in here with a handy weight of 10st.
Some of the other fancied runners are opposable. Moville (11/1 Stan James) is too young at five. That's the same age as 2005 winner Essex but take him out of the equation and there have been 65 failures from that age group in the last 10 years. At the other end of the age scale, the eleven-year-old Spring The Que (14/1 Boylesports) is too old, while Thousand Stars (12/1 Victor Chandler) looks to have too much weight.
Of the rest, I've a healthy respect for the mare Asigh Pearl (16/1 Paddy Power), who is making her handicap debut after finishing runner-up to the useful Saludos at Punchestown last time. The winner has since boosted the form by finishing second in a Grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas. However, I think the big field and likely fast pace of this race is going to suit the selection more.
Recommended Bet:
Steviemac 1pt each-way @ 12/1 bet365