His third to superfilly Goldikova in the Moulin over this distance at Longchamp last September, ahead of Henrythenavigator and Natagora, represents high-class form.
PACO BOY can silence those who doubt his credentials as a miler by winning the prestigious Lockinge Stakes (2.40) at Newbury on Saturday, for which he's a general 5/4 favourite.
The doubters will point to the fact that he's done most of his winning over 7f, but he did win convincingly over Sandown's stiff mile last time out, while his third to superfilly Goldikova in the Moulin over this distance at Longchamp last September, ahead of Henrythenavigator and Natagora, represents high-class form and is certainly good enough to win on Saturday. It's also worth pointing out that he's three from three at Newbury.
In that Sandown race, he gave the reopposing Dream Eater (14/1 Stan James) and Virtual (16/1 bet365) 6lb and a comfortable beating, so it's hard to see either of them turning around the form. A bigger danger looks to be last season's impressive Jersey Stakes winner Aqlaam (4/1 Skybet), whose trainer William Haggas has had this race in mind for some time. However, an injury sidelined him for the rest of last season and he had to miss his intended prep race at Leicester due to the ground being considered too fast, so he's surely going to need his first run back.
With Twice Over (12/1 Blue Square) a big disappointment on his seasonal debut and Tariq (16/1 Coral) also coming back after a layoff, it may be left to Pressing (14/1 Paddy Power) to chase Paco Boy home. A Group 1 winner in Italy over 1m2f as a four-year-old, he showed he was equally effective over a mile last autumn when landing a couple of Group 2's and his trainer Michael Jarvis has been sounding positive about his chances this week. As he's a double-figure price, the forecast should pay well.
So, it's Paco Boy to beat Pressing, but that prediction does come with a caveat over the going. While the selection has won on good to soft, any appreciable softening of the ground might just stretch his stamina to the limit and would bring the likes of Aqlaam and Twice Over more into contention. In fact, I'd go as far as saying don't back him if the word 'soft' is in the going description.
Recommended Bets:
Paco Boy 5pts @ best morning-line price
Paco Boy to beat Pressing 1pt straight forecast
(No bets if 'soft' appears in the going description)