Ross takes a look at the 2010 Investec Oaks.(credit:
chippykev)
After the traditional trials failed to produce a clear favourite, it's 5/1 the field for this year's Oaks and you could make a case for a dozen of the 15 runners that line up on Friday (4.05).
A good place to start when trying to find the winner is with Henry Cecil as the great man has no peers when it comes to training fillies and has landed the Oaks a record eight times. And he must have a good chance of making it nine with either Aviate or Timepiece. But which one?
Of the pair, it's easier to make a case for Aviate (5/1 Paddy Power) on this season's racecourse evidence She came late to snatch victory by a head in the Musidora last time and would have won by daylight with a clear run, but she beat nothing of note and may be more blessed with speed than stamina. Timepiece (7/1 Ladbrokes) was disappointing in her trial at Lingfield and although she probably hit the front too soon, didn't strike me as an Oaks filly. On breeding, she's not certain to stay either.
It could pay to look elsewhere and the one that makes most appeal at the current odds is AKDARENA at 10/1 with Coral. Jim Bolger's filly had looked exposed after winning just one of her first six starts, but the application of blinkers has sparked a transformation and she has now won her last two outings. On each occasion, she did it the hard way from the front and although both races were over 1m2f, there is plenty of stamina in her pedigree - her dam Akdariya was second in the Ribblesdale - so the step up to 1m4f could bring more improvement.
I'm old enough to remember the front-running Jet Ski Lady bolting up in the 1991 Oaks for Jim Bolger and it's not hard to imagine this filly emulating her stablemate. The likely fast ground will certainly help her cause and it's interesting that connections are dispensing with the blinkers to go with a visor instead in the hope of finding a little more improvement. And in an open year, she wouldn't have to find that much more to win this.
Of the rest, Sajjhaa (8/1 general) could be anything having won her only start in good fashion, but is desperately short of experience. Rumoush (6/1 Stan James) had no chance from a bad draw in the 1000 Guineas (7th) and is better judged on her easy win in the Fielden Stakes back in April. Like a lot of these, her stamina is unproven, but for what it's worth I think she will stay and see her as the biggest danger to the selection as she will relish the fast ground.
Remember When deserves a mention as she is trained by Aidan O'Brien and is almost certainly capable of better than what she's shown so far, most notably an eye-catching fourth in the Irish 1000 Guineas last time out. However, that doesn't necessarily make her an attractive bet at the current 8/1 (Stan James).
Ceilidh House (12/1 general) hails from the in-from stable of Ralph Beckett, successful with Look Here in 2008, but needs cut in the ground, while John Gosden's Gertrude Bell (16/1 William Hill) won a poor renewal of the Cheshire Oaks earlier this month. Snow Fairy (16/1 bet365) was supplemented into this race at a cost of £20k after winning at Goodwood and could run better than her odds imply.
Recommended Bet:
Akdarena 1pt each-way & 1pt win @ 10/1 Coral