A truly mouth-watering Coronation Stakes is in prospect with the winners of the 1000 Guineas and its French and Irish equivalents - Ghannati, Elusive Wave and Again respectively - set to clash.
Winners of the 1000 Guineas have a poor record in this race, but Ghanaati (9/4 bet365) won so well at Newmarket that many punters will be looking no further for the winner. Certainly, it's hard to see either Nashmiah (33/1 general) or Lahaleeb (16/1 Boylesports), ninth and tenth respectively, turning the tables and, with the forecast rain failing to materialise, it seems likely she will have her ideal ground conditions again. She could well turn out to be an exceptional filly, but the form of her win doesn't look any stronger than the French version in my opinion, and she looks to have been overbet.
Elusive Wave (11/4 general) made all to win her Classic and the runner-up Tamazirte filled the same spot behind the brilliant Stacelita in the French Oaks on Sunday, with Group 1 winner Proportional beaten nearly three lengths into third. A line through that one gives Elusive Wave five and a half lengths in hand of fellow French raider Reggane (12/1 Paddy Power). Granted, she was given a canny ride by Christophe Lemaire (reunited here) at Longchamp and it's doubtful she will given so much rope up front here but, strictly on the book, it looks a cracking performance.
The Irish 1000 Guineas winner, Again (9/1 William Hill), should not be underestimated, although the form of her win might not be strong with so few runners acting on the heavy ground that day. Conditions will be totally different at Royal Ascot so it remains to be seen whether she can reproduce her Curragh running. I can see her drifting on the day.
Very fast ground would make John Gosden think twice about running Rainbow View (8/1 Ladbrokes), as lightning fast conditions were put up as an excuse for her defeat at Newmarket back in May. That may well be true and she's since run well in the Oaks when nothing went right for her, but the sparkle of last season has been notably absent and my gut feeling is to oppose her.
In fact, the race is looking more and more like a two-filly war and I have to side with ELUSIVE WAVE on account of her trainer, Jean-Claude Rouget. Not a familiar name over here I know, but he's been cleaning up at home this season, with Stacelita's win at the weekend taking his 2009 Group tally to 11. So well are his horses running right now, he could probably win with the stable chat, which can't be said of Ghannati's trainer Barry Hills.
Granted, he won Wednesday's Jersey Stakes with Ouqba but stablemate and favourite Infiraad finished a tailed-off last, and going into the Royal meeting he had trained just two winners from 27 runners (7%), which is in stark contrast to his form in the first two months of the season. That has to be a concern for anyone thinking of backing the 1000 Guineas heroine.
Recommended Bet:
Elusive Wave 2pts @ best morning-line price*
*bet365, Stan James, Boylesports and William Hill all go Best Odds Guaranteed, which means you'll get paid out at the SP if it's bigger.