Christmas Crackers

Ross Aylward - 22 Dec 2009

Don't get my wrong, I love Christmas Day and all the festivities that go with it, but what I really want for Christmas is for the current cold snap to end as there’s some great racing in prospect if it does.

It all gets under way on Boxing Day with the King George VI Chase (3.05), the biggest staying chase this side of Cheltenham. For the last three years, picking the winner has been a piece of Christmas cake: Kauto Star has hacked at short odds on each occasion. Can he do it again? Of course he can - he's not 8/13 (Coral) for nothing. Is he value at that price? Quite possibly and most definitely if your name is Harry Findlay.

That said, backing at odds-on is not everyone's cup of tea and, fortunately, the shape of the market leaves ample scope for a decent each-way punt. Imperial Commander so nearly beat Kauto Star in the Betfair Chase last time out and must have a shout of turning the tables. That said, his current price of 6/1 looks on the skinny side now, especially as three miles around Kempton is always going to suit Kauto better.

Madison Du Berlais likes it around here, as does last year's second Albertas Run. Then there are the second-season chasers Nacarat and Deep Purple to consider. The latter arrives here on the back of a career-best performance in the Peterborough Chase last time and there looks to be plenty of value in his current price of 14/1 (bet365). He has the talent and a will to win that could carry him into a place while, god forbid, if anything should happen to the jolly, he would have a good chance of winning. But this is surely Kauto's to win and can you imagine the scenes if he does.

Just over half an hour earlier, the Christmas Hurdle (2.30) looks a match on paper between Binocular and Go Native, although punters should not underestimate Starluck. His exceptionally high cruising speed - not unlike Harchibald, who won this race a year ago - is perfect for a speed track like Kempton, although whether he has the class to go past the front two remains to be seen. One thing's for sure, the Champion Hurdle market is going to look very different after the race.

Then there is the Felltham Novices' Chase (1.55), which gives the exciting Punchestowns - Coral's 5/1 favourite for the RSA Chase  -another chance to strutt his stuff. Let's just hope he doesn't scare away the opposition! His trainer Nicky Henderson loves to get one ready for this two-day meeting and virtually everything he runs has to be seriously considered. The Lambourn trainer can help pay for Christmas!

If that's not enough for you, there is also Boxing Day action in the UK at Down Royal, Huntingdon, Market Rasen, Sedgefield, Towcester, Wetherby (featuring the Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase), Wincanton (back Paul Nicholls's runners blind) and wonderful Wolverhampton.

On to Chepstow now for the Welsh National, which this year takes place on Monday 28th. In stark contrast to the King George, this race is nearly always won by a slogger. Usually run in deep mud over 3m5f110yds of undulating countryside, the ability to handle the conditions and stay forever are paramount. Step forward recent impressive Chepstow winner Le Beau Bai (6/1 Paddy Power), who would have won by a furlong or more had that race been over the Welsh National trip, and with just a 4lb penalty is still very well-handicapped. Silver By Nature (14/1 Blue Square) is in a similar mould and being at the right end of the handicap could give him most to do.

Across the Irish Sea, there are a stack of good races to look forward to over the course of Leopardstown's four-day meeting (26th-29th). The most interesting race on day one has to be the Grade 1 Bord na Mona with Nature Novices' Chase. I'm clueless about the race title but I know we're in for a treat with the high class Sizing Europe, Osana and Captain Cee Bee all being aimed at the race. All three have made perfect starts to their chasing careers, but the former in particular has looked a real natural over fences and I expect him to cement his position at the head of the Arkle Trophy market (currently 6/1 best with bet365).

On day two, the highlight is the Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase (1.25), in which Forpadydeplasterer must take all the beating if he runs, while I can also pass on a good word for Bringbackthebiff in the Paddy Power Chase (3.05). Last season's form was very good  - close fourth in a Grade 1 novice chase over course and distance - and he could be a good deal better than his current handicap mark. If you have one bet over Christmas, stick a few quid each way at 20/1 with Victor Chandler on this fella.

Joncol and Notre Pere head the betting at 3/1 with Skybet for day three's highlight, the Lexus Chase, but it's hard to be confident about either. For the former, this race may come too soon after his John Durkan win, while Notre Pere has his Down Royal fall and poor run at Haydock to put behind him. I see Paul Nicholls has elected to run Hennessy runner-up What A Friend (11/2 Stan James) and he could easily bring this valuable prize back across the Irish Sea.

It's a shame we wont get to see Hurricane Fly again this season after his setback. In his absence, the way looks clear for Solwhit to redeem his slightly tarnished reputation in the December Festival Hurdle, the highlight of day four. Sublimity, who finished one place ahead of him in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle, won't go down without a fight and looks the value of the pair at 8/1 (Skybet) in what promises to be a fitting finale.

Boxing Day can't come soon enough!


 





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