I'm expecting a big run from my Champion Chase fancy Kalahari King in Saturday's Blue Square Handicap Chase at Doncaster (3.25).
Although set to carry top weight of 11st 12lb here, last season's Arkle runner-up doesn't look too badly treated off a mark of 157, especially considering how well Arkle third Planet Of Sound has run this season, and it's not like he's having to give lumps of weight away as his two biggest rivals according to the betting, Free World and I'msingingtheblues, are weighted within 5lb of him. Besides, a big weight is not such a factor over this trip of 2m1/2f and it has certainly been no barrier to success in this race with eight of the last 10 winners carrying 11st or more to victory.
His fitness is a worry, though as he's been off the track since running second to Twist Magic at Sandown last April and his reappearance this season has been delayed due to a splint problem. He's over that now but his trainer Ferdy Murphy is expecting this race to bring him on and it's therefore a big ask to expect him to win first time out. Obviously, having backed him ante post at 10/1 for Cheltenham, I'm hoping he runs a blinder and I'll be delighted if he's in the frame, but he's reluctantly passed over for this race.
Still, for the reasons already given, I'm not going to look too far down the handicap for the winner and I'm going no further than FREE WORLD. At first glance, the string of '2's' next to his name is off-putting and there's no doubt he struggled to get home last season, including twice at Sandown where, after trying to make all, he was found out by the stiff uphill finish. However, a summer at grass and a change of tactics on his latest start at Cheltenham, where he was held up, have seemingly had the desired effect and there was a lot to like about the way he stayed on to get within a length and a quarter of the massively in-form French Opera.
The handicapper has raised him 3lb for that performance but his trainer Paul Nicholls has been making some very positive noises lately and considers him a dark horse for the Champion Chase, in which case he has to take all the beating here off a mark of 152. Bookmakers clearly agree as he's favourite across the board, with the sponsors going a top price of 5/1. That's the only downside, really, as this flat 2m on what should be decent ground is ideal for him and it's significant that Ruby Walsh has chosen him over his stablemate I'msingingtheblues (8/1 Totesport), who is two from two over this trip here, including when beating Doctor David in last year's renewal.
Of the rest, I must admit I looked long and hard at Oiseau De Nuit (8/1 Skybet) who, of all the lightweights, has the most impressive profile. A winner of four handicap chases last season when with Philip Hobbs, he's progressed again since being switched to Colin Tizzard's in-form stable this term, culminating in him winning a decent handicap chase at Ffos Las last time out. Despite being raised 9lb for that success, his rider's 7lb claim takes his weight down to just 10st 4lb and he won't be far away.
However, on a line through the Ffos Las fourth, Saphir Des Bois, who finished a similar distance behind Free World when seventh at Cheltenham, he has plenty to do to beat the selection and Kalahari King is preferred for the forecast.
Recommended Bets:
Free World 2pts @ 5/1 Blue Square
Free World / Kalahari King 0.5pt reverse forecast