The key to Saturday's Blue Square Gold Cup at Haydock (3.35) is this season's Welsh National as the first six home in that Chepstow marathon renew rivalry here.
The winner Dream Alliance is up 9lb in the weights for that success but he is still lightly raced for a nine-year-old and may find further improvement - the sponsors rate him a 7/1 shot to follow up here. He will have to, though, as the runner-up, Silver By Nature (6/1 Ladbrokes), is 2lb better off for a three-quarters of a length beating and can be considered an unlucky loser as he lost all momentum when pecking badly at the last. Before that, he had hacked up by nine lengths against some useful opposition at Carlisle over 3m2f and is clearly still progressing.
At the weights, he has got nothing to fear from the Welsh National third Le Beau Bai (6/1 Blue Square), who was beaten fair and square is only 2lb better off for a seven-length margin. The fourth horse at Chepstow, Miko De Beauchene (10/1 Ladbrokes), is entitled to finish a lot closer, though, as he has a 7lb pull for around eight lengths with the runner-up. Winner of this race two years ago and third last year, he's had his problems since but has been gradually coaxed back to from by his trainer Venetia Williams.
Ballyfitz (14/1 Totesport) and Coe (9/1 Sportingbet), fifth and sixth respectively at Chepstow, are also entitled to be thereabouts, although both are prone to making mistakes and that has cost them in these sort of races in the past. That said, Coe did jump round here 12 months ago to finish second as a novice and providing he can settle better - raced far too keenly at Chepstow - he won't be far away.
Neither will Grand National winner MON MOME (14/1 Paddy Power), who looks to be nearing his peak after two eye-catching performances in a row. After finishing a respectable third to Cheltenham-bound Tell Massini over hurdles at Cheltenham in December, he was staying on better than anything (as you'd expect) when fourth to Our Vic in the Peter Marsh here last month. With an extra half-mile to travel and a 12lb pull in the weights with the winner, he looks a cert to reverse the form and at least finish in the frame.
For the winner, though, I keep coming back to SILVER BY NATURE, who looks by far the best of those than ran in the Welsh National. Like Mon Mome, he stays all day and will love the heavy ground. OK, he's a shortish price but having backed him last time I can't desert him now with conditions absolutely ideal.
Recommended Bets:
Silver By Nature 2pts @ 6/1 Ladbrokes
Mon Mome 1pt each-way @ 14/1 Paddy Power