Three Hot Tips for Saturday's Big Aintree Race.
Nick Wilby has already tipped Snowy Morning at 20/1 in the antepost markets for this year's Grand National - now, fresh on the back of tipping Imperial Commander to win the 2010 Cheltenham Gold Cup, Racingbase tipster Ross Aylward takes a look at the Aintree showpiece.
Modifications to the fences and a compressed handicap mean the Grand National is not the race it once was, but it's still a great spectacle and when the tapes go up (hopefully, only once) at 4.15pm on Saturday the roar from Aintree racecourse will be heard around the world.
Unfortunately, none of the recent changes to the race have made picking the winner any easier and compiling a list of four or five horses with a good chance is next to impossible as just about half the 40-runner field have got a chance of sorts. Still, after much studying of form, sleepless nights and pin sharpening, I've narrowed it down to three:-
Arbor Supreme @ 16/1 bet365 1/4 odds, 1.2.3.4.5 & Best Odds Guaranteed
Call me old-fashioned but I'd much rather back one with less than 11st to carry and, of those, Arbor Supreme makes the most appeal off what looks a lovely racing weight of 10st 8lb. Weight is one thing but stamina is just as important and I've no worries on that score either as he has won two of the three times he has raced over 3m4f. Some have crabbed his jumping but he can jump well when on-song and I reckon his rider, the up-and-coming Paul Townend, will be able to get a good tune out of him. And it's significant he's been well-backed in recent weeks given his owner is legendary gambler JP McManus, who incredibly is still looking for his first winner in the race. With a bit of luck in-running, this could be the one.
Character Building @ 16/1 Blue Square 1/4 odds, 1.2.3.4.5 (20/1 Ladbrokes, first four)
Also creeps under the 11st barrier with 10st 10lb on his back and we know he stays as he went close in the 4m1f National Hunt Chase at the 2007 Cheltenham Festival and won the Kim Muir Chase at that meeting last year, when threading his way through the field to take it up after the last. He's lightly-raced since but his underrated trainer John Quinn has had this race in mind all season and has been making some confident noises of late. He's unproven over the fences but is a careful jumper who looks after himself a bit and that's what you need around here.
Maljimar @ 33/1 Paddy Power 1/4 odds, 1.2.3.4.5 (40/1 William Hill, first four)
Missed the cut for last year's race by one but is guaranteed a run this time having been set 10st 8lb to carry. Ran poorly in a race on the Mildmay Course at this meeting 12 month's ago but, Nick Williams, his trainer, put that down to a hard race at Cheltenham previously and it's noticeable that he's been kept fresh this time. The last time Maljimar ran was back in December when finishing third in a 3m7f cross-country chase at Cheltenham - which largely dispels any doubts over his stamina - and he's always been a clever and careful jumper.
Nearly made it: It was a real wrench leaving out the winner in 2008 and last year's runner-up, Comply Or Die (22/1 William Hill), especially now that Timmy Murphy has chosen him over The Package. He'll finish in the top-four again, you'll see.
Favourite's chance: Last year's sixth Big Fella Thanks (17/2 Sportingbet) is almost certain to go off favourite, but his price has been hyped beyond what he's achieved on the track and I'm not convinced he will take to the National fences for a second time.
Stamina over speed: The old addage that two-and-a-half-milers can win the National is utter rubbish and anyone who thinks the likes of Ballyholland (never won beyond 2m6f) and Can't Buy Time (best over 2m4f) can win should consider packing up.
Cheltenham curse: It takes a special sort of horse to win this race after a good run at the festival and the suspicion is that both Mon Mome (12/1 Totesport) and The Package (16/1 Skybet) may have been better served by swerving Cheltenham altogether.
Shocks are rare: Last year's 100/1 winner aside, it rarely pays to see beyond anything above 33/1 for win purposes as, since 1969, the winner has returned at 16/1 or less on 30 occasions.
McCoy's annual quest for a winner: After 15 failed previous attempts and several near misses, no-one would begrudge Tony McCoy a win on the quietly-fancied Don't Push It (33/1 Sportingbet).
The following bookmakers are going one quarter the odds five places: bet365, Boylesports, Blue Square, Victor Chandler, Paddy Power and 888Sport - shame on the rest if they don't follow suit!
Recommended Bets:-
Arbor Supreme 1.5pts each-way @ 16/1 bet365 BOG
Character Building 1.5pts each-way @ 16/1 Blue Square
Maljimar 1pt each-way @ 33/1 Paddy Power
(All at 1/4 odds, 1.2.3.4.5)
