After another disastrous day for favourite backers, the bookies left Cheltenham jumping for joy on Wednesday after some of the meeting’s biggest fancies fluffed their lines at jumping HQ.
Punters will be keeping their fingers crossed that Thursday will signal the start of things to come and the nation will be looking to hammer the layers on the last two days of the Festival.
Nick Wilby takes a look at Thursday’s card and picks out his fancies on day three of the 2010 Cheltenham Festival.
1.30 Jewson Novices’ Handicap Chase
2m5f handicap chase
Thursday kicks off with a typically wide open looking Jewson and Rivaliste (7/1, Ladbrokes £200 free) will be a popular choice to land the race for Paul Nicholls who goes in search of back-to-back victories in the race. With Ruby Walsh in the saddle the favourite will be looking to build on an encouraging first season in Britain and his 6lb hike in the weights for chasing home Doctor Pat at Sandown last time out does not seem too harsh. He looks like Paul Nicholls’ best chance of winning this year’s race with Take The Breeze (50/1, William Hill £60 free) unlikely to relish the drying ground.
The Hollinwell (15/2, VCBet £100 free) will also be popular and his exploits since his switch to chasing puts him firmly in the picture, while Jered (14/1,Bet365 £200 free) and China Rock (10/1, Ladbrokes £200 free) are more than capable of running big races for the Irish. However, preference is for Noel Meade’s classy Festival winner NICANOR (14/1, Ladbrokes £200 free) who will be looking to put his injury problems firmly behind him on jumping’s greatest stage.
The selection will be remembered for the success he enjoyed in 2005/06 and his wealth of ability novice chasing saw him defeat the mighty Denman. It is no secret that he has had his problems ever since but he proved he retains all his natural talent with an authoritative victory at Navan last time out and he crossed the line with his head in his chest. That was not good enough to land him a trappy race like this but he is potentially very well treated and he has shown some top class form in four maiden chases since returning to the track. He can gain compensation for his injuries by getting in the frame in Wednesday’s opener.
Nick Wilby’s selection – Nicanor each-way (14/1, Ladbrokes)
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2.05 Pertemps Final
3m handicap hurdle
Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh have made no secret about how highly they rate the highly talented ALFIE SHERRIN (nap) (7/2, Paddy Power £100 free) and he is taken to shrug off a 12lb rise in the weights in the Pertemps Final. The winner of two of his only three appearances over obstacles, the selection was an emphatic winner in a hot looking handicap last time out and he looks a top class recruit to the Nicholls yard. The handicapper’s decision to punish the seven-year-old is understandable and is a fair reflection of his facile victory over the Triggerman at Newbury. With improvement on the cards he is a confident choice to prove a cut above this field and can take this on the way to greater things.
That being said, it will not all be straightforward and Nicky Henderson’s JP McManus-owned Ainama (8/1, Ladbrokes £200 free) has the potential to upset the apple-cart. He has been trained with this race in mind and has had his handicap mark successfully protected by connections after a creditable defeat in the Grade 2 Aintree Hurdle last year.
Classy flat performer Prince Erik (12/1,Ladbrokes £200 free) cannot be dismissed after his bloodless victory in Ireland last time out while Boulavogue (33/1, Bet365) could sneak into a place at a big price.
Nick Wilby’s selection – Alfie Sherrin (7/2, Paddy Power)
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2.40 Ryanair Chase
2m5f Grade One
The ante-post market for the Ryanair Chase has been dominated by Poquelin (7/2, William Hill £60 free) and Tranquil Sea (9/2, Coral £50 free) ever since their high profile early season victories and it is not hard to see they are two horses on the upgrade. Poquelin has been kept fresh with this race in mind and he will relish the quick conditions he will face on Thursday, with Ruby Walsh and Paul Nicholls bullish about the chances of the Boylesports Gold Cup winner. He has a bit to find with Tranquil Sea judged on last year’s Paddy Power Gold Cup (Tranquil Sea bet Poquelin by four and a half lengths) but it is interesting to hear how much his trainer believes the horse has come on ever since.
Tranquil Sea readily dismissed of an inferior set of rivals on testing ground at Leopardstown last time out but that was a poor Grade Two and he will have to run the race of his life to confirm his superiority over Poquelin.
Voy Por Ustedes’ (16/1, Bet365 £100 free) price is too big for a horse that has proven himself at Cheltenham and it is not impossible to envisage first time blinkers sparking a revival in the festival legend. Planet Of Sound (14/1, Paddy Power £100 free) and Deep Purple (25/1, William Hill £60 free) are more than up to the task if they can return at the peak of their powers and Schindlers Hunt (12/1, Ladbrokes £200 free) proved his wellbeing when chasing home Joncol in the Irish Hennessy. However, BARBERS SHOP (6/1,Paddy Power) looks like he can gain a well deserved victory at the highest level in a wide open affair.
After giving chase to Denman in the Hennessy Gold Cup, Barbers Shop served it up to Kauto Star in the King George on Boxing Day and would have finished second if he was ridden for a place. It is difficult, near impossible, to argue that the selection has the ability to beat the two best chasers on the planet but he is still a top class horse that has regularly acquitted himself with credit at the highest level.
The drop in trip to 2m5f is certain to suit the horse and trainer Nicky Henderson is confident that the classy jumper will land a Grade One race sooner rather than later. His form at Cheltenham has seen him twice go close over this trip and he can gain compensation in the most satisfying way possible.
Nick Wilby’s selection – Barbers Shop each-way (6/1, Paddy Power)
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3.20 Ladbrokes World Hurdle
3m Grade One
The 2010 Ladbrokes World Hurdle revolves around the mighty BIG BUCK’S (8/11, Paddy Power £100 free) and he is fully entitled to be a short-priced favourite for Thursday’s feature. Punters will approach the race with a large degree of trepidation after ‘festival bankers’ Dunguib and Master Minded were turned over at odds-on on the first two days of the meeting, but that should not be held against Big Buck’s who should win this race for a second time.
Unbeaten in six races over hurdles after unseating his rider in the 2008 Hennessy Gold Cup, his performance when holding off the classy Punchestowns in last year’s renewal of this race lives long in the memory. This season has seen him return in the same sort of imperious mood and he looked every bit as good as last year with a commanding victory over Karabak (9/1, Ladbrokes £200 free) in the Long Walk Hurdle.
Versatile when it comes to ground and untouchable stats and trends-wise, he looks by far and away the most likely winner. Layers will look to the flat spot he hits in his races for some inspiration but this also provides punters with the opportunity to back the horse in running at slightly inflated odds.
Karabak is lightly raced and should run into a place, but it is difficult to see how he will turn around the Long Walk Hurdle form that saw him beaten fair and square by the selection. Even if he were to improve, it may not be enough to lower the colours of Paul Nicholls’ stable star.
Tidal Bay (15/2, Paddy Power £100 free) is almost certain to run well now returned to hurdling and Sentry Duty (14/1, Ladbrokes £200 free) is capable of getting involved if he stays, but it is Cousin Vinny (33/1, Blue Square £10 free) who could be the best each-way alternative in the hope that a step up in trip plays to the strengths of the hugely talented Irish raider.
Nick Wilby’s selection – Big Buck’s (8/11, Paddy Power)
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4.00 Byrne Group Plate Chase
2m5f handicap
A daunting handicap puzzle for punters to solve and there is a case to be made for almost all the field. Watch My Back (8/1,Stan James £25 free bet) is a short price and a leading contender based on the fact he is unexposed and was last seen easing home by eleven lengths at Doncaster, while connections are bullish about the chances of Sunnyhillboy (9/1, Ladbrokes £200 free bet) who will be ridden by champion jockey Tony McCoy.
Festival regulars Our Vic (40/1, VCBet £100 free) and Mister McGoldrick (40/1, Stan James £25 free) would be mightily popular winners and My Petra has the ability to land a race like this if her confidence over fences is restored, however, a chance is taken on classy Irish Grade One-winner IN COMPLIANCE (nb) (20/1, Blue Square £10 free bet) who has shown some top class form since returning from injury in 2009. Plagued by injuries in recent years, his scintillating return to the track in a listed heat at Thurles was followed by two creditable efforts behind the stylish Joncol at Grade One level and he looks like he retains the bulk of his ability.
A reliable jumper, In Compliance heads into the race with his trainer confident he will relish the trip and ground and he is a fair each-way bet (make sure you get paid on five places in the race).
Nick Wilby’s selection – In Compliance each-way (20/1, Blue Square)
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4.40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Chase
3m11/2f amateur riders’ handicap chase
Another wide open handicap and it would take a brave, or highly confident, punter to get stuck in with an open wallet. Ballabriggs (7/1, Ladbrokes £200 free) will be popular after returning from his injury this season better than ever and he has also looked decent based on his promising novice career in 2007/08. He is 10lbs higher in the weights than when sauntering home at Ayr last time out and would be a danger to all in search of a hat-trick.
Stablemate Khachaturian (16/1, VCBet £100 free) will also run for McCain jnr and would look a more reliable betting proposition if he hadn’t have been unfairly punished for a victory at Bangor last time. He could still run well but is passed over in favour of a tentative vote for SHILLINGSTONE (8/1, Bet365 £200 free) who has been aimed at this race for some time and will have conditions in his favour.
Nick Wilby’s selection – Shillingstone each-way (8/1, Bet365)
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