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We look ahead to Saturday's big betting handicap, the Northumberland Plate...
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If he gets in, Deauville Flyer will be the one to beat in the Northumberland Plate, the 5 lb penalty he picked up for hacking up in a competitive handicap at York last time still leaving him officially 6 lb well in for Newcastle. Versatile as regards conditions, and still somewhat unexposed at two miles, he is fully deserving of his position at the head of the market. However, he is currently twenty-ninth in the weights and, with only twenty runners set to go to post, he is no good thing to make the cut.
One for whom getting in the race is not an issue is the Irish mare Elyaadi, who is ahead of the handicapper judged on her second-place finish in the Ascot Stakes at Royal Ascot. Elyaadi's effort at Ascot deserves marking up given the way she was ridden, left an awful lot to do held up in rear and making excellent late headway to snatch second close home, ultimately leaving the impression that she has races in her off this mark when things go more her way. The return to two miles shouldn't be an issue for Elyaadi, having won impressively over a mile and three quarters on her reappearance. It's also worth noting that her improvement this term has coincided with her meeting good to firm going for the first time in over three years - with the weather in the North East reportedly set fair for the coming week, she should have no excuses as regards conditions.
One concern would be tactics, as Elyaadi is usually held up, often exaggeratedly so, as at Ascot, which may not be ideal in a big field at Newcastle. Equally, a mere eleven days rest since that big effort at Ascot is arguably not ideal, though she has demonstrated an ability to string good runs together in quick succession in the past. Her connections sent Al Eile over to finish fourth in the Northumberland Plate in 2007, but in Elyaadi they look to have an even stronger contender this time round, for all the race is extremely competitive, as befits one of the season's most valuable handicaps.
Recommendation: Back Elyaadi @ 11.5