Kauto Star versus Denman. With each holding one Cheltenham Gold Cup verdict over the other, their next encounter will be billed as the 'great decider' - but can you decide?
I know I can't and I doubt connections can either. If you'd asked me before Kauto Star's historic fourth King George win, it would have been Denman, no contest, but I'm not so sure now. I've written Kauto off once before after he lost his Gold Cup crown to Denman in 2008, only for him to produce the best performance of his career (at the time) when sauntering home from Denman 12 months later to become the first horse ever to regain the Gold Cup. Now he goes to Cheltenham at the peak of his powers (if the ratings are correct) and, more importantly, a fresh horse, which is the key to him now.
As for Denman, his spectacular win in this season's Hennessy (albeit against handicappers) is still fresh in the memory and if he arrives at Cheltenham in the same sort of from, we are in for some race indeed. As he's a hard horse to get fit at home, we will get to see him again before the Gold Cup when he runs in either the Aon Chase at Newbury or the Irish Hennessy next month, so there is some room for his price to move from its current position of 9/4 (Ladbrokes). If he's an easy winner, he will be challenging for favouritism, but if he gets beat, Kauto will be odds-on - he's currently a best-priced 11/8 with bet365.
Still, whether you'd want to take a price now on either with two months to go, is another matter, although if you forced me to side with one of the other at this stage, it would be Denman as he is arguably a stronger stayer in a truly run Gold Cup. But I just don't know, and nor do you (go on, admit it). I just hope they both make it to Cheltenham in one piece without any mishaps along the way and that there aren't too many runners on the day. No luck in-running, no excuses, just two great horses going head-to-head. Bring it on.
As for a bet - which is probably the reason you are reading this - I just wish I could find a bookmaker going 2/1 about them to be the first two home, but I can't. Perhaps nearer the time? The other betting angle is to take them out of the equation altogether. There are plenty of bookmakers betting without the front two and, while you don't need to be Sherlock Holmes to figure it out, there is only one horse worth backing - IMPERIAL COMMANDER at 7/2 with Betfred.
Let's look at the evidence. Not many horses can serve it up to Kauto Star when he's on song, but Imperial Commander did just that in the Betfair Chase earlier this season, OK, Kauto may not have been at his very best but it was still a cracking effort and the nose verdict might have gone his way had he not made that mistake three out. Then there is his love affair with Cheltenham. He's won there five times no less, including last season's Ryanair. That was over 2m5f but the Gold Cup trip of 3m21/2f might suit this long-striding horse even better, as the first mile or so is uphill and that will allow him to find a good rhythm.
You can forget his run in the King George last time (beaten 64 lengths) as his terrible blunder at the second fence would have knocked the stuffing out of him, and the fact he now goes straight to Cheltenham is a big plus as he's best fresh. What makes him such a good bet, though, is the lack of credible opposition. Cooldine has a mountain to climb on the ratings and, besides, was pulled up in the Lexus last time, while What A Friend is well held by Denman on Hennessy form. Both Madison Du Berlais and Carruthers are best on flatter tracks, like Newbury.
The 'great decider' between Kauto Star and Denman will hopefully raise the roof and I'm sure I'll end up backing one of them - will let you know nearer the time. However, I'm expecting big things from Imperial Commander and I'm sure he'll give me a massive shout in the battle for third, at the very least.
Recommended Bet:
Imperial Commander (without Kauto Star and Denman) 2pts @ 7/2 Betfred