This year's Champion Chase revolves around Master Minded. He destroyed the field when winning in 2008 and followed up 12 months later when beating Well Chief - but will he even turn up this year?
That's the big question for ante-post punters who can back him at 7/4, which could look huge come the day. If only we could be certain he will be fully recovered from the rib injury he picked up on his reappearance in time for Cheltenham. Well, the latest injury report from his trainer Paul Nicholls is a positive one: "He's fresh, well, 100 per cent sound and I couldn't be happier with him". In fact, he's in such good order that connections are considering giving him a run in the Game Spirit Chase beforehand, although he's more likely to go straight to Cheltenham. What are we waiting for then?
Hang on a minute. We know he had a valid excuse for his laboured effort behind Well Chief at Cheltenham on his reappearance, but what about the time before that, and the time before that? Perhaps I'm being unfair to the horse, but since his career-high point in the 2008 renewal, when he recorded an RPR of 186, he hasn't performed to the same level since. After failing to break the 170 barrier when beating Well Chief in 2009, he went to Punchestown and would have been beaten by Big Zeb had that horse not clouted the last.
Granted, he's still winning races but the aura of invincibility he once had has deserted him and, although I'm loathe to discount any Paul Nicholls-trained horse in a championship race, I would advise against backing him now. In fact, it's worth finding one to beat him and last season's Arkle runner-up KALAHARI KING could be the one at a tasty 10/1 with William Hill (11/1 Betfair).
The previous season's Arkle is normally a good place to start when trying to find the winner of this race and Kalahari King would probably have won that race but for his shuddering mistake at the ninth. In the end, he was just denied by Forpadydeplasterer (9/1 Coral), who is a high-class horse in his own right and must also come into reckoning. In the last 10 renewals, of the six Arkle winners to return here the following year all made the frame and three have been successful. However, he is a difficult horse to win with, as his chase record of six seconds in his last seven starts suggests, and he will need everything to go right.
It did for him last year and it might do so again but Kalahari King has the potential to go right to the very top. After being just denied at Cheltenham, he went one better at Aintree and can be forgiven for being trounced by Twist Magic at Sandown on his final start as his conqueror just doesn't get beaten at that track. This season, his return has been delayed by a splint problem but he is due to return at Doncaster early next month and if he wins there I would expect him to be half the odds he is now.
After that, it will be all systems go for a third visit to Cheltenham - he ran fourth in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle in 2008 - and given his trainer Ferdy Murphy's superb record there you can pretty much bank on him being spot on. Of course, he can't afford to make any more mistakes - one blunder at this level and you're out of the race - and he's reportedly done plenty of schooling under big race jockey Graham Lee, which helps dispel any lingering doubts on that score.
At Cheltenham, he will again have Twist Magic (8/1 general) as a rival and that horse has been well-backed for this race in anticipation of a big run in Ascot's Victor Chandler Chase on Saturday. He may well win that race but I just can't have him for Cheltenham. In three visits to date, the nearest he has finished to the winner is 52 lengths. In fairness, that was the only time he finished and he was in the process of running a good race in the 2007 Arkle when falling two out. However, his two Champion Chase runs have been awful and if he wins this season's Champion Chase I will take my hat off to his trainer Paul Nicholls and eat it along with a large slice of humble pie.
As for the rest, Big Zeb (12/1 Sportingbet) would probably beat all of these with a clear round of jumping. However, that remains his Achilles heel and one mistake would see his confidence go to pieces. Well Chief (20/1 Ladbrokes) looks a safer bet to get round but he's not getting any younger and on this season's evidence he lacks the toe these days to win a Champion Chase. Last year's third Petit Robin (11/1 bet365) should again run well but needs to improve to have a realistic chance of winning.
If there is a dark horse in the field it is Paul Nicholls' third entry Free World, who is pencilled in for the Game Spirit in February. He hasn't done enough so far to merit serious consideration but ran really well to finish second at Cheltenham last time when hold-up tactics were employed for the first time. He might have won but for a bad blunder early on and were he to win that Newbury contest, his current odds of 25/1 (Totesport) would plunge.
Recommended Bet:
Kalahari King 1pt @ 10/1 William Hill