Nick Wilby picks his best five bets for the months ahead.
After witnessing some mightily impressive performances at the back end of 2009 and with the Cheltenham Festival and the eagerly anticipated Flat Season fast approaching, Nick Wilby picks out his top five antepost bets for the coming months.
Nick Wilby’s 2010 antepost Lucky 31:
PUNCHESTOWNS
RSA Novices Chase
3m, Cheltenham Festival, March 2010
10/3 (Paddy Power)
After cruising home by eleven lengths in the 2008 Long Walk Hurdle, Punchestowns finished second behind Paul Nicholls’ superstar Big Buck’s in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle and chasing immediately became the new target for this impressive looking seven-year-old.
An exciting addition to the division, he made a winning debut over the fences at Newbury in November, jumping foot perfectly before landing the Grade 2 by open lengths and without coming off the bit. Cut for the RSA as soon as he crossed the line, it was obvious Nicky Henderson’s star would be a huge player at the 2010 Festival.
Bred and expected to continue to go from strength-to-strength with more racecourse experience, Punchestowns already travels and jumps like a dream and he is a superstar chaser waiting to happen.
He is already a relatively short price for the RSA Chase and while he will not want the ground too soft at Cheltenham and with stablemate Long Run almost certain to line up and provide a stern test for the selection, he already makes plenty of appeal. It´s hard to argue that come March, if all is well with him, he´s going to be awfully tough to beat, and he could be something very special.
KHYBER KIM
Champion Hurdle
2m, Cheltenham, March 2010
10/1 (Paddy Power)
The 2010 Champion Hurdle puzzle looks tougher than ever before and with so many top class hurdlers in with a chance, it seems certain we are in for a thriller this March. My original preference in the race would have been for Hurricane Fly, Willie Mullins’ Irish raider who has long been held in high esteem by his trainer. If he is as good as I believe he is, he would have taken some stopping at Cheltenham, but his position in the field looks in huge doubt after the fragile superstar suffered another injury recently.
Instead, I am happy to back Khyber Kim at a very generous 12/1 following his victories in the Greatwood Hurdle and more recently the Boylesports International Hurdle at Cheltenham. No horse since Rooster Booster has followed up in the Festival showpiece after winning the International Hurdle, but Khyber Kim looks in great form this season and he is finally building on the promise he showed as a youngster.
The Nigel Twiston-Davies trained seven year old showed an impressive turn of foot to settle the Greatwood after the final flight, before producing a similar display in beating last year’s Champion Hurdle first and second Punjabi and Celestial Halo in the Boylesports. It would seem fair to say that he could be even more effective given a stronger early gallop and his latest performance, along with the rate he is evidently progressing, clearly puts him right in the Cheltenham Festival frame.
He is not the most consistent type in the antepost betting and it would be fair to say that his temperament will always be a slight concern, but Khyber Kim is evidently a class act on his day and his form stacks up with the other leading contenders.
SIZING EUROPE
Arkle Chase,
2m, Cheltenham Festival, March 2010
6/1 (Paddy Power)
Unbeaten over fences, Sizing Europe has put the disappointments of the last two years firmly behind him since he took to the bigger obstacles this season. Troubled with injury problems ever since his impressive victory in the Irish Champion Hurdle, he has barely clipped a fence this campaign.
After making easy work of Harchibald in the Buck House Novice Chase on his seasonal debut, he followed up in the Grade 2 Craddockstown and bookmakers had seen enough to make De Bromhead’s superstar their antepost favourite for the Arkle Chase. It is not hard to see why and jumping enthusiasts will be able to see that Sizing Europe evidently relishes jumping and he attacks his fences with ears pricked and great venom. That, along with his ability to quicken and his relentless engine on the racecourse made him an evens chance for the Bord Na Mona Chase at Leopardstown over the Christmas period.
While he managed to keep his unbeaten record over fences intact in the race, it almost went wrong for the eight-year-old when Captain Cee Bee loomed over him approaching the last, only to fall and allow Sizing Europe an easy victory over Osana.
As the dust settled over the race, many punters chose to side with Captain Cee Bee in the antepost market for the Arkle Trophy, but not me. Cheltenham will suit Sizing Europe much better than Leopardstown and his outstanding jumping will see him in an even better light than we have witnessed. He remains an outstanding prospect and will take the world of beating come March.
CANFORD CLIFFS
2000 Guineas
1m, Newmarket, May 2010
9/1 (Paddy Power)
As short as 4/1 for the 2000 Guineas almost a year before the Classic, Canford Cliffs made his debut with a lofty reputation as a £50,000 son of Tagula. An emphatic winner of his first ever racecourse appearance, Richard Hannon’s juvenile superstar became one of the most impressive Royal Ascot winners of all time with a scintillating victory in the Coventry Stakes, slamming his rivals by six lengths leading jockey Richard Hughes to describe the colt as "by far" the best he´s ridden.
Antepost punters latched onto the superstar and expected his next race, the Group 1 Prix Morny, to be a procession for the nation’s leading juvenile. However, all did not go to plan and Canford Cliffs could only manage second behind the highly-regarded Arcano and French filly Special Duty. When asked to quicken, Hannon’s star could muster nothing like the turn of foot he found at Ascot and it was a serious wake up call for those who had predicted 2000 Guineas success for the horse.
However, the form of the race has since been franked, with Special Duty a short priced favourite for the 1000 Guineas and with Arcano at the head of the betting for the 2000 Guineas, it was clearly not as poor a Prix Morny as many had originally suspected.
Canford Cliffs also raced on the stands’ rail in France, a section of the racecourse that was deemed slower than anywhere else on the track and he appears to be the sort of horse who relishes a good surface, something he will more than likely experience at Newmarket in May.
Suspicions over his ability to get one mile have been heavily debated and while his trainer and his jockey are adamant it will be no problem, if the ground were to come up anything other than good at HQ, his chance would be seriously dented.
However, it is hard to forget his performance at Royal Ascot and it is hard to ignore the high esteem his legendary trainer and jockey hold him in. I will remind punters of Henrythenavigator, the 2008 winner of the 2000 Guineas. After landing the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot he was subsequently put in his place on heavy ground by the mighty New Approach, only to disappear off the juvenile scene. He returned at to Newmarket and edged out his rival in an absolute thriller after many people had written off the Ballydoyle superstar. I will be hoping Canford Cliffs can do a similar thing at HQ.
ST NICHOLAS ABBBEY
The Derby
1m 4f, Epsom, June 2010
9/4 (Paddy Power)
Unbeaten in three starts as a juvenile, St Nicholas Abbey will head to Epsom as Ballydoyle number one and 2009’s Champion Juvenile. After scoring in impressive fashion on his racecourse debut at the Curragh, he followed up with an equally exciting display in the Beresford Stakes, leading bookmakers to make him their 2010 Derby favourite.
Next up was the Racing Post Trophy, the final Group 1 of the year and Aidan O’Brien’s highly-regarded son of Montjeu answered those who had been wondering who was this year’s champion juvenile and he put some distance between himself and his market rivals for next year’s Classics.
The race was over three furlongs from home and a vintage renewal of the Trophy featuring any number of talented and unbeaten horses was turned into a procession by what is quite clearly a very useful horse indeed. With the ground no issue at all, he blew away the rest of the field and delivered a sensational performance.
Always travelling like a dream his turn of foot was emphatic and his cruising speed equally dazzling, if he resumes his upward curve of improvement, perhaps if he even turns up in the same form, he will take the world of beating come next year and even at odds of 5/2, he still looks a standout bet for the nation’s most prestigious race.
50p each-way lucky 31 with Paddy Power :
Potential returns = £12210.00
50p each-way accumulator with Paddy Power:
Potential returns = £5462.81
Follow this link to Paddy Power for information on how to get a free bet on any of their 2010 antepost markets.
Let me know what your top tips for 2010 are!