Paul Nicholls will be hoping Master Minded is ready for the 2010 Queen Mother Champion Chase.(credit:
CharlesFred)
With the weather unrelenting, I'm going to look forward to some of the big Cheltenham Festival races with a view to identifying value, or lack thereof. It's with the latter description that I'll kick off in analysing the chances of Paul Nicholls landing a fifth Champion Chase.
Master trainer Paul Nicholls appears, at first glance, to have a stranglehold on the Queen Mother Champion Chase, as he is responsible for the front two in the betting, Master Minded and Twist Magic. He has also suggested via his Racing Post column that the value bet in the race is another of his, Free World. All looks rosy in the garden then with the combined Nicholls team weighing in at a shade of odds on. But first impressions can be deceiving as I'll attempt to prove.
Firstly, let's tackle the issue of Master Minded. On one hand, Nicholls has expressed himself to be "delighted" with the current champion after his return from a rib problem, but on the other he admits to being "in the dark" as to whether he will make it to Cheltenham in his best form or whether he is even over the problem which has seen him sidelined since an poor performance in the Cotswold Chase in November. For me, he cannot possibly be supported at current odds and I'm increasingly worried about whether it will be possible to get him fully fit without a prep run. Owner Clive Smith stated early in the season that he was looking to give the horse a busy season as he looked like he would benefit from being kept busy on the track. The implication was that Master Minded, a notably big horse, was becoming more difficult to keep fit as he got older. Add to that an admission from his trainer that he will not be able to get his charge ready for the Game Spirit Chase in February, and he begins to look a very dubious proposition.
Twist Magic is easier to dismiss. I suggested that he was a cracking bet in the Tingle Creek which he duly won, but even then I warned against backing him to win the Champion Chase, as he simply cannot operate at Cheltenham. His abject performances in the last two renewals prove that and he will do well to complete the course. He is a short priced favourite for the Victor Chandler Chase and I'd be happy to lay him now before he has a chance to disappoint. Free World was described by Nicholls as badly handicapped before he surprised when running up to French Opera over C/D last month. It remains to be seen whether that was a renaissance or a flash in the pan; I favour the latter, but either way, the form is leagues removed from that required to win a Champion Chase.
I would be inclined to look at the early entries for the Victor Chandler and Game Spirit Chases as a way of engineering value. I suspect that at least one of the top novices will be given a chance at Newbury and I'd be happy to back whichever one of them is likely to get an outing in the big one, since all the major contenders seem much of a muchness. Of the novices, Riverside Theatre would make plenty of appeal, while both Cornas and Oh Crick have scope to shorten if either can win the Victor Chandler. None are cast iron bets as such, but would be excellent back to lay options in the right circumstances.
Recommendation: lay the Nicholls trio combined at around Evens.
Follow this link to Betfair for information on how to get a free bet on the 2010 Champion Chase.