Bryan Smart has his team in fine fettle and his MAZE can help us solve the puzzle that is the Victoria Cup (2.15), run over 7f at Ascot on Saturday.
The trainer's Enderby Spirit was just touched off in a Listed race at the track last week, but five winners from 17 runners still made it a profitable week for followers of his stable, with the winners scoring at 8/1, 6/1, 4/1, 7/2 and 11/4. Maze, currently a 16/1 shot with William Hill, hasn't scored since his two-year-old days, but hinted that a return to the winner's enclosure was nigh when a staying-on fourth over 6f at Pontefract last time. While successful over that distance on his debut at two, Maze is much more effective over 7f as he showed when winning the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot over course and distance on only his second start.
Since then, he has been his own worse enemy, often spoiling his chances by pulling too hard, and last season's three-year-old campaign was a bit of a write-off. Still, he showed on occasions that the old ability was still there and perhaps he'll settle better now he's a year older. At least the the handicapper has dropped him to what looks like a potentially good mark and, with that positive prep run under his belt and with the stable in form, he looks sure to run a big race.
I can't stress the importance of winning form over 7f enough. This is a specialist trip and, unsurprisingly, seven of the last nine winners had scored over the distance. That's a stat that several of the better fancied horses need to overcome, including the David Nicholls-trained Evens And Odds (8/1 bet365). The five-year-old was an impressive winner of a 6f handicap at Newmarket last Sunday and looks well-handicapped even with his penalty, but has yet to win in 10 tries over 7f and 1m.
The current ante post favourite Prescription (6/1 Blue Square) hasn't even raced over the trip having done all his running over 6f. Even more of a concern, though, is that he is untried on fast turf, which is what he's almost certainly going to encounter on Saturday. Surely, if he were trained by anyone else apart from Sir Mark Prescott, he'd be double his current price. We'll Come (14/1 Stan James) gained his only success in a 1m maiden so he is another we can put a line through.
Last year's winner Zaahid (12/1 Skybet) has to be respected, especially with his trainer Barry Hills in such irresistible form. He does, though, have to put a dismal effort in the Spring Mile last time out behind him and he is 6lb higher than when scraping home from Al Khaleej in last year's race.
Arabian Spirit and Blue Sky Basin, both 16/1 with the sponsors, should go well, but GUILDED WARRIOR is the other one to back at a tasty 40/1 with Ladbrokes. A specialist at this distance, he was beaten only four lengths into fifth behind Zaahid last year and would have finished closer had he not stumbled badly when leaving the stalls. The talented Louis-Philippe Beuzelin, who claims a useful 5lb, takes the ride.
Recommended Bets:
Maze 1pt each-way @ 16/1 William Hill
Guilded Warrior 1pt each-way @ 40/1 Ladbrokes