The last five home-trained winners were saddled by the Ballydoyle maestro, including Henrythenavigator last year.
Here's a killer stat for anyone thinking of having a bet in Saturday's Irish 2000 Guineas (3.45) at the Curragh. The last seven winners had run in the English equivalent so Delegator, runner-up at Newmarket, has an obvious chance of going one better.
Brian Meehan's colt showed a potent turn of foot to land the Craven Stakes, but his performance in the Guineas when a clear second to Sea the Stars was a personal best. He's clearly a high class miler, but I just wonder whether that Newmarket run might have compromised his chance on Saturday.
That might seem a strange thing to say but, having watched the race video many times, it's clear he wasn't enjoying the fast ground, particularly in the final furlong when he was being asked for maximum effort, while he did have a hard race in defeat. Of course, this weekend's easier ground conditions might help him forget that bad experience. But, then again, the mental scars might remain.
So, at his current cramped odds of 9/4, he's passed over in favour of MASTERCRAFTSMAN, who might not have had such a hard race as Delegator in finishing fifth. He too wouldn't have appreciated the fast ground and, as one of his two juvenile Group 1 victories came on heavy ground, we can safely assume he'll revel in what is expected to be testing ground at the Curragh.
What's more, you've got to give maximum respect to anything trained by Aidan O'Brien in this race. The last five home-trained winners were saddled by the Ballydoyle maestro, including Henrythenavigator last year, and Mastercraftsman is easily the pick of his four runners. It's also worth noting that the stable's three-year-olds have been coming on a bundle for a run.
Take Ladbroke's 5/2 as I can see him usurping Delegator as favourite and going off around 7/4.
The danger for me is not Delegator but Rayeni, trained like Sea Of Stars by John Oxx. He won both his starts at two (on soft ground) and is certainly capable of more improvement now he's stepping up to a mile. That said, 4/1 (Paddy Power) is a skinny price for a horse making his seasonal debut in a Classic.
As for the rest, Recharge (10/1 Stan James) may be best on a faster surface, while Soul City (9/1 Totesport) has not raced beyond 7f and is not guaranteed to get the mile on breeding. Hail Caesar (40/1 bet365), a stablemate of Mastercraftsman, is surely on pace maker duties here but is one to note when he steps up to 1m4f later in the season.
Recommended Bet:
Mastercraftsman 2pts @ 5/2 Ladbrokes