The six-year-old showed he had what it takes for this race when finishing third last year and looks to have been trained with this race in mind again.
Don’t blink or you’ll miss it! Saturday’s Investec Dash (3.00) sees 20 runners thundering downhill on the fastest 5f course in the world and, if the ground stays on the firm side, the winner could well break 55 seconds. Surely then, it's just a case of backing the fastest horse in the race? If only it was that easy.
For one, as is common with so many sprints, you need luck in-running, while a high draw (stands' side) is traditionally an advantage. Then there is the track itself to consider as there is nothing else quite like it and for that reason the same horses seem to run well in the race year after year. Last year's winner, Holbeck Ghyll, had finished an unlucky-in-running fourth in 2007, while the winner that year, Hogmaneigh, finished fourth last year. There have also been two dual winners of the race.
Therefore, it seems best to concentrate on horses who have become standing dishes in the race as opposed to those with no Epsom form in the book, and old Hogmaneigh (14/1 William Hill) must come into the reckoning, despite being a few pounds higher in the ratings than last year. Another old-timer, Desert Lord (25/1 bet365), winner of this race three years ago, is another to consider, although the nine-year-old has largely been out of sorts over the past year.
The ground is important to both of them. Hogmaneigh wouldn't mind a drop of rain, while Desert Lord ideally wants it fast, but SAFARI MISCHIEF makes most appeal whatever the going.
The six-year-old showed he had what it takes for this race when finishing third last year and looks to have been trained with this race in mind again. Granted, he's 7lb higher in the ratings than last year, but he's run well in all five starts since and showed improved form to win at Lingfield on his final start of last season. A lot of sprinters improve with age and he might well have won on his reappearance at Goodwood - another sharp track - had he not hit the front so soon. His draw in stall 16 is the icing on the cake!
At 9/1 with Skybet, he shares favouritism with Wi Dud who, despite running well to be third in the Temple Stakes last time, remains a difficult horse to predict and I wouldn't bank on him running to the same level of form. Of the rest, Cake (11/1), Crimson Fern (12/1) and Captain Dunne (12/1) are all running well and are well drawn - put a line through anything drawn in single figures - but Safari Mischief is the pick on his Epsom form.
Recommended Bet:
Safari Mischief 1pt @ 9/1 Skybet