Gan Amhras has only 5lb to find on that form and looks sure to improve for the Derby trip.
There are 20 horses left in the Derby and 14 of those are trained in Ireland, while 9 of those emanate from the Ballydoyle stronghold of Aidan O’Brien. Of these, 7 are currently quoted at 25/1 or less, but which is the Ballydoyle No.1?
Let's start with the current favourite Fame And Glory, who is a short as 9/4 with Stan James but as big as 7/2 with Coral, which is a big difference of opinion. My take is that, even at the bigger price, he is plenty short enough given that his case rests on one line of form - beating Mouryan and Fergus McIver in both the Ballysax and Derrinstown Stud Stakes. Sure, he has a nice combination of speed and stamina but, because he keeps beating the same horses, we just don't know how good he is and for me the value has to lie elsewhere.
Next up is Rip Van Winkle who has come in for significant support in recent days on the back of speculation that he is the choice of stable jockey Johnny Murtagh. That's all well and good but he's unlikely, in my opinion, to get the trip (although connections would disagree), while it's worth noting that since O'Brien started training he has seven times saddled more than one horse in the Derby and on four occasions the stable jockey has chosen the wrong one. Rip Van Winkle at 6/1 (Paddy Power)? - no thanks!
More interesting are the Dante first and second, Black Bear Island (8/1 bet365) and Freemantle (16/1 Blue Square). That race has always been a rock-solid guide to producing the Derby winner and, while you could have thrown a blanket over most of the runners at the finish, there was a lot to like about the way Black Bear Island scythed through the field to beat his stablemate. The way he was staying on suggests that he'll be even more effective over the Derby trip and I'd be confident of him confirming superiority over Freemantle, who might be best over 1m2f.
The other O'Brien runners to note are Age Of Aquarius (25/1 Stan James), who can be expected to come on a bundle for his first run of the season (in common with all the stable's three-year-olds this season); surprise Chester Vase winner Golden Sword (33/1 Sportingbet); and Masterofthehorse (20/1 Boylesports). The latter was given far too much to do in that Chester race and you've got to fancy him to turn the tables over this longer trip.
With so many eligible contenders, it's no wonder Ladbrokes make O'Brien a 4/6 shot to win the race, but that doesn't mean he will of course and I'm going to take them all on with GAN AMHRAS, from last year's winning yard. Jim Bolger's colt finished third in the 2000 Guineas just over two lengths behind the winner Sea The Stars, who was immediately made favourite for the Derby, although he has since been usurped by Fame And Glory - Coral's can't split the pair and go a top price 7/2.
However, Gan Amhras has only 5lb to find on that form and looks sure to improve for the Derby trip, unlike Sea The Stars who will need to be every bit as good at 12f as he is at a mile. I'm far from convinced of that so, at 9/1 (Blue Square, William Hill), the Bolger horse rates the value bet at this stage.
Recommended Bet:
Gan Amhras 2pts @ Blue Square, William Hill