If you haven't already backed him, I suggest you do as he has always looked a potential Derby winner.
Saturday’s Derby (3.45) is the most open for years with all 13 runners having a chance of sorts, which can be read two ways. Either it’s an impossible race to solve or there is some terrific value to be had and although I’m currently leaning towards the latter, I suspect I might end up regretting getting involved!
In my mind, I’ve already done my ante post money on Crowded House, who can’t possibly win now after his disappointing run in the Dante (can he?), while the form of his Racing Post Trophy win last October doesn’t look so good now. I see he’s been backed in recent days after being confirmed a runner, which is always half the battle, but I just can’t see it somehow.
After the Dante, I must admit to having a few quid on GAN AMHRAS (tipped up here at 9/1) and it's reassuring to see he's now trading a point or two shorter, with bet365's 8/1 the best on offer. If you haven't already backed him, I suggest you do as he has always looked a potential Derby winner. A winner over 1m at two, his pedigree is packed with stamina so it was to his credit that he ran so well in the 2000 Guineas when staying on strongly to finish third behind Sea The Stars. His trainer Jim Bolger is sounding quietly confident of training back-to-back Derby winners after sending out New Approach last year.
Granted, he does have 5lb to find on Guineas form to turn the tables on Sea The Stars, but that one is far from certain to stay and I'm surprised he's trading as short as he is - 10/3 best with Sportingbet. While his pedigree is strong on stamina, the speed he showed when winning over a mile at Newmarket suggests he will be better at distances short of 1m4f, and the Coral-Eclipse over 1m2f looks perfect for him.
Ditto the current second favourite Rip Van Winkle (9/2 Coral). I know he's the choice of stable jockey Johnny Murtagh but he has already picked the wrong one in a couple of Derby trials, and either Fame And Glory (4/1 Paddy Power) or Black Bear Island (8/1 Stan James) would have been a better choice in my opinion. The first named is unbeaten and has dominated two recognised Derby trials, while the latter showed improved form to pip stablemate Freemantle in what looked a competitive renewal of the Dante Stakes at York.
However, while both are admirable colts, I'm not convinced either are quite good enough and, at the odds, I'd much rather have a saver on KITE WOOD, who looks great each-way value at 25/1 (Ladbrokes).
He was just about the best of these at two when with Michael Jarvis, and went into the winter as second favourite for the Derby after running out a a convincing winner of a Group 3 race at Ascot in October. Now with Godolphin, he shaped pleasingly when fifth in the Dante on his reappearance, as connections had expected him to need the run, and his breeding suggests he's going to flourish over this sort of distance. Frankie Dettori, who steered Authorized to victory two years ago, takes the ride.
Recommended Bet:
Kite Wood 1pt each-way @ 25/1 Ladbrokes
Already advised - Gan Amhras 2pts @ 9/1