1. Eight of the last 10 winners ran in a Group race as a two-year-old.
Clearly, the best policy is to concentrate on those horses with solid Pattern form as juveniles and Delegator, who finished a close fifth in the Dewhurst Stakes, fits the bill nicely. One of the exceptions, King Of Happiness, was trained by Sir Michael Stoute so his Yarmouth maiden winner Glass Harmonium has to be respected.
2. Every winner in the last three decades was making its seasonal debut.
A pipe-opener has counted for nothing in the past, so last weekend's surprise Easter Stakes winner Pure Poetry faces a tall order. That said, bigger races on the all-weather and in Dubai over the winter should in theory challenge that stat, and it will be interesting to see how Godolphin's first ever Craven runner, City Style (a dual winner in Dubai), gets on.
3. Sir Michael Stoute, Richard Hannon and Barry Hills have won seven of the last nine runnings.
This year, they are represented by Glass Harmonium, Pure Poetry and Alyarf.
4. Seven of the last 10 winners had won over 7f as a two-year-old.
As two of the exceptions had finished in the first three over the trip at Group level, it's clear the winner must have shown the necessary stamina at two to win over 1m at three. That's a big negative for 6f Haydock winner Alyarf.
5. Only two winners since 1999 were outside the top four in the betting.
While we've had two double-figure winners in the past decade, the winner is generally prominent in the betting, although favourites have a mixed record - five have been unplaced in the last 10 renewals.
Conclusion:
The first three in the betting, Delegator, City Style and Glass Harmonium, all have solid claims so I don't envisage a shock this year. Of these, I'm going to row in with DELEGATOR on the strength of his sparkling gallop at Manton last week, which caused his price to collapse for the 2000 Guineas. If the punters who took part in that gamble are to collect, he has to win this and in some style. Paddy Power go evens but with some decent sorts against him, I'm holding out for 11/10 on the day - 2.08 on Betfair at the time of writing.