Second last time out in the Vintage Crop Stakes over 1m5f, the four-year-old has always shaped as if this trip would suit him far better.
The last four Chester Cup winners have started at odds of 16/1, 28/1, 14/1 and 33/1 so it’s with some trepidation that I tackle this year’s race. That said, go back a little further, and this hasn’t been such a bad race for market leaders with only two winners going off at double-figure odds in the 15 years between 1990 and 2004, so maybe it’s not too difficult a race to solve after all.
This year, there are currently three horses trading at single-figure odds, including Daraheem, who represents the 1000 Guineas-winning team of Barry and Richard Hills. With the stable in great form, you’ve got to respect his chance, especially as he’s already proven around this quirky track having scored at this meeting 12 months ago. That was over 1m2f, though, so there has to be a slight doubt about him seeing out this 2m2f trip and on that basis he looks plenty short enough at 6/1 (Stan James).
Amerigo (7/1 Blue Square) must have a great chance on his second to recent Sagaro Stakes winner Paktai in last season’s Queen’s Vase. However, the handicapper looks to have him about right and he has a very awkward draw in 16 to overcome, while Downhiller (7/1 bet365) needs to improve again to defy his 3lb rise for winning at Ripon last time.
We’re quickly into those at double-figure odds and it’s hard to rule out anything with total confidence, but HINDU KUSH looks to have as good a chance as any and can be backed at a tasty 14/1 with Sportingbet (9/1 in a place). Last year’s St Leger fourth when trained by Aidan O’Brien, is now with David Nicholls, who also has his team in great form – six winners last week – and boasts a respectable strike-rate at Chester. Second last time out in the Vintage Crop Stakes over 1m5f, the four-year-old has always shaped as if this trip would suit him far better.
Stall 14 isn’t ideal but his jockey Jim Crowley, who won the race last year, will be wise to the draw bias and should be able to sit in behind what is always a frantic gallop before challenging entering the straight. The fact that three of the last four winners have come from a double-figure berth suggests that an inside draw isn’t a requisite for victory.
Recommended Bet:
Hindu Kush 1pt each-way @ 14/1 Sportingbet